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Episode 738: The Playoff Draft
Date October 6, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam give an update on ongoing competitions, draft playoff teams, and answer emails about play-in games, Clayton Kershaw, a Tigers scoring mystery, and more. Topics * Playoff team draft * Wild Card game strategy * New York Yankees bullpen * Comparing Clayton Kershaw to Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta * Young MLB player debuts * Fallout from Jonathan Papelbon choke of Bryce Harper * Detroit Tigers cluster luck * Postponing a game for missing players Intro Jay Z and Kanye West, "No Church in the Wild" Outro Eliza Doolittle, "Missing" Banter * Episode 326 and Episode 607 follow-up: Ben won the 2015 Minor League Free Agent Draft. * Episode 648 follow-up: Doug Thorburn currently leads the Tommy John Avoidance Draft, but there is still time for player to have Tommy John surgery. * Episode 201, Episode 442, and Episode 669 follow-up: Ben leads all off the 25-and-Under Starters Drafts. * Episode 304 follow-up: Pirates postseason update * Episode 280 follow-up: Jacoby Ellsbury home run update * Episode 696 follow-up: The Cardinals and Astros have not made a trade together. * Episode 714 follow-up: Sam currently leads the 2015 MLB Debuts Draft Draft Selections Email Questions * Simon (Portland, OR): "So with the wild card play-in games fast approaching it's the time of year again to speculate about what the optimum approach might be to winning such a high stakes game where an entire season rests on the slimmest of margins. Last year the Royals threw their impressive bullpen at what was widely perceived as a superior Oakland A's team and the resulting victory opened the door for Kansas City to begin its march to the World Series and achieve what looks like a franchise resurrection. With all that's at sake what do you think the best approach to winning in this key game is?" * Colin: "How confident are you in advanced pitching stats that show Kershaw as at least marginally better than Greinke and Arrieta this year despite some more traditional numbers that might say otherwise such as ERA and home runs allowed? What do you think Cy Young voters ought to be looking at to justify their vote? Should it be 80% deserved run average or strikeout rate or ERA or what? If Kershaw retired tomorrow do you think he would make the Hall of Fame?" * Scott & Mike: "What was the economic impact of the Papelbon choke? How much did he cost himself?" * Paul: "Just now browsing, I came across the fact that the Detroit Tigers finished first in BA, second in OBP, and fifth in SLG yet they were only sixteenth in actual runs scored. This seems like an aberration. Do you think other real skill factors like baserunning, coaching, and a third thing I can't figure out are this important in run creation or is this more likely bad sequencing? I am a Tigers fan who has been in Los Angeles for a decade and has yet to become a screenwriter. Please give me hope in any form." * Wes: "How good a player would have to go missing before game 7 of the World Series in order for the game to be postponed? I'd imagine that if Clayton Kershaw was slated to pitch and just never showed up that they'd have to postpone the game just in case he was kidnapped or something, Dan Marino in Ace Ventura-style. What would happen?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to look up players who had MLB service time during their age 19 season. * From 1950-1969 there were 39 players who had MLB service time at age 18 or 19, including a few players at age 17. Many of these were 'bonus babies'. * Brian Milner was a catcher who played in two games for the Blue Jays during his age 18 season (1978). He never played again. Notes * Ben wins the Playoff Draft. His teams accumulated 19 total wins to Sam's 17 wins. * The Houston Astros have one of the highest home field advantages in the last decade. In general, teams that play in domed stadiums tend to have higher home field advantage. * Ben and Sam agree that if Clayton Kershaw had to stop playing he would still make the Hall of Fame, despite not accruing 10 years of service time. * Strangely, the Tigers had better offensive performance with RISP during the 2015 season. They were second worst in baserunning runs and had the worst cluster luck of any MLB team. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 738: The Playoff Draft * Effectively Wild Competitions Spreadsheet Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes Category:Draft Episodes